PolyTrace
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Trader profile

23449

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$217.2KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate41.6%77 settled · past 90 days7 open · 96% underwater · 3 hours ago
Lifetime volume$6.2M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded391Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−22.6% / $95% interval −641.0% to +595.8%22 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−20.5%n=21 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 24 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 41.6% · Decided 77 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded3 hours ago
Current position value
$4.2K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$39K
Concentration
46.9%
Largest share of value
Positions
96
Showing the largest 8 of 96
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
NoValue$2KPnL−$93Avg45.5¢Current43.5¢4,568.46Shares
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
NoValue$1.4KPnL−$182Avg24.2¢Current21.5¢6,653.81Shares
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
YesValue$362PnL−$1.9KAvg21.7¢Current3.5¢10,499.95Shares
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?
NoValue$270PnL+$71Avg12.9¢Current17.5¢1,540.81Shares
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
YesValue$86PnL+$22Avg73.2¢Current97.5¢88.71Shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
YesValue$63PnL−$206Avg53.4¢Current12.5¢503.14Shares
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
YesValue$38PnL−$76Avg46¢Current15.5¢248.22Shares
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?
YesValue$0PnL−$2Avg2.1¢Current0¢105.09Shares
Showing 8 of 96 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet 23449: 41.6% win rate over 77 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −22.6% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −641.0%, n=22 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−20.5% over 21 fills); +$217.2K lifetime P&L, $6.2M traded, updated 2026-09-24.