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Trader profile

thestupidmoney

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$95.2KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate49.1%566 settled · past 180 days6 open · 97% underwater · 35 minutes ago
Lifetime volume$56.9M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded66Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−13.1% / $95% interval −37.0% to +10.7%52 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−13.1%n=52 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 49.1% · Decided 566 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Complete35 minutes ago
Current position value
$579
Snapshot cash PnL
−$1.4K
Concentration
37.1%
Largest share of value
Positions
22
Showing the largest 8 of 22
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?
YesValue$215PnL−$13Avg9¢Current8.5¢2,527.46Shares
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?
YesValue$113PnL+$5Avg3.6¢Current3.8¢2,999.99Shares
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?
YesValue$103PnL−$13Avg7¢Current6.3¢1,654.33Shares
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship?
YesValue$57PnL−$49Avg5.3¢Current2.9¢2,000Shares
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YesValue$55PnL−$85Avg7¢Current2.8¢2,000Shares
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?
YesValue$37PnL−$0.50Avg3.7¢Current3.7¢1,000Shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?
YesValue$0PnL−$199Avg49.9¢Current0¢400Shares
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
YesValue$0PnL−$47Avg9.4¢Current0¢499.95Shares
Showing 8 of 22 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet thestupidmoney: 49.1% win rate over 566 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −13.1% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −37.0%, n=52 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−13.1% over 52 fills); +$95.2K lifetime P&L, $56.9M traded, updated 2026-09-24.