PolyTrace
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Trader profile

theta-thunberg

Market makers
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL+$58.3KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…52 open · 22% underwater · 1 day ago
Lifetime volume$2.1M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded942Lifetime coverage
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+11.0% / $95% interval −225.8% to +247.7%57 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
+16.3%n=39 settled
Finance
−5.9%n=11 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 24 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded1 day ago
Current position value
$23K
Snapshot cash PnL
+$829
Concentration
37.3%
Largest share of value
Positions
75
Showing the largest 8 of 75
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026?
NoValue$8.6KPnL+$7.3KAvg14.7¢Current94.7¢9,080.49Shares
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
NoValue$3.7KPnL+$255Avg87¢Current93.5¢3,928.72Shares
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
YesValue$1.7KPnL+$425Avg15.4¢Current20.5¢8,335.97Shares
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
NoValue$1.6KPnL−$704Avg50¢Current34.5¢4,542.14Shares
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by September 25, 2026?
NoValue$1.5KPnL−$10Avg99¢Current98.3¢1,500Shares
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$1.1KPnL+$75Avg29.7¢Current32¢3,306.72Shares
Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?
YesValue$643PnL+$290Avg39.2¢Current71.5¢898.9Shares
Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?
YesValue$569PnL+$160Avg63.3¢Current88¢646.37Shares
Showing 8 of 75 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet theta-thunberg: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge +11.0% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −225.8%, n=57 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (+16.3% over 39 fills); +$58.3K lifetime P&L, $2.1M traded, updated 2026-09-22.