PolyTrace
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Trader profile

alwayslatetotheparty

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$513.6KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate4.1%1,766 settled · past 180 days215 open · >99% underwater · 3 days ago
Lifetime volume$274.9M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded156Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−31.5% / $95% interval −80.6% to +17.6%408 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−10.3%n=225 settled
Finance
−54.8%n=176 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 4.1% · Decided 1,766 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded3 days ago
Current position value
$1.8K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$164.9K
Concentration
7.7%
Largest share of value
Positions
1,063
Showing the largest 8 of 1,063
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?
YesValue$142PnL−$1.6KAvg0.6¢Current0.1¢283,172.98Shares
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
YesValue$129PnL−$544Avg0.8¢Current0.2¢86,139.51Shares
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
YesValue$109PnL−$317Avg0.8¢Current0.2¢54,559.14Shares
Will Yannick Jadot win the 2027 French presidential election?
YesValue$109PnL−$109Avg0.1¢Current0.1¢217,611.24Shares
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?
YesValue$106PnL−$1.1KAvg0.5¢Current0.1¢211,123.67Shares
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?
YesValue$104PnL−$1.1KAvg0.6¢Current0.1¢208,851.31Shares
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?
YesValue$83PnL−$915Avg0.6¢Current0.1¢166,346.94Shares
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election?
YesValue$80PnL−$1KAvg0.7¢Current0.1¢159,111.62Shares
Showing 8 of 1,063 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet alwayslatetotheparty: 4.1% win rate over 1,766 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −31.5% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −80.6%, n=408 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−10.3% over 225 fills); +$513.6K lifetime P&L, $274.9M traded, updated 2026-09-20.