PolyTrace
← Back to wallets

Trader profile

Montecarlaw

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$9.8KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate62.1%451 settled · past 90 days16 open · >99% underwater · 2 hours ago
Lifetime volume$3.5M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded716Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−3.2% / $95% interval −73.1% to +66.6%110 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−3.2%n=110 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 62.1% · Decided 451 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded2 hours ago
Current position value
$12.5K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$1.1K
Concentration
65.2%
Largest share of value
Positions
18
Showing the largest 8 of 18
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?
YesValue$8.1KPnL−$513Avg84.5¢Current79.5¢10,249.58Shares
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
NoValue$2.3KPnL+$0.01Avg92.8¢Current92.8¢2,499.99Shares
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
YesValue$1.4KPnL−$261Avg13.6¢Current11.5¢12,405.5Shares
Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
NoValue$428PnL−$32Avg75.8¢Current70.5¢606.9Shares
Will Monaco be runner-up in the 2026-27 Ligue 1?
NoValue$76PnL+$0.75Avg77.2¢Current78¢97.79Shares
Will Delphine Batho be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
NoValue$17PnL+$0.22Avg89.5¢Current90.6¢18.96Shares
Will Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
YesValue$17PnL−$0.90Avg5¢Current4.8¢360Shares
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
YesValue$15PnL+$1Avg35¢Current38¢40.01Shares
Showing 8 of 18 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Montecarlaw: 62.1% win rate over 451 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −3.2% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −73.1%, n=110 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−3.2% over 110 fills); +$9.8K lifetime P&L, $3.5M traded, updated 2026-09-24.