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Trader profile

alpheclabs

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$929KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate46.7%35,305 settled · past 90 days146 open · 13% underwater · 14 minutes ago
Lifetime volume$89.8M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded3,485Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−17.1% / $95% interval −117.8% to +83.5%1,260 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−16.3%n=1,207 settled
Unmapped
−28.5%n=53 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 21 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 46.7% · Decided 35,305 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Complete14 minutes ago
Current position value
$70.6K
Snapshot cash PnL
+$4.5K
Concentration
63.4%
Largest share of value
Positions
154
Showing the largest 8 of 154
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
NoValue$44.7KPnL+$1.6KAvg78.9¢Current81.8¢54,711.59Shares
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
YesValue$3.9KPnL+$3.5KAvg4.6¢Current58¢6,646.33Shares
Will Indiana Fever win the 2026 WNBA Finals?
NoValue$2.1KPnL−$7Avg89.8¢Current89.5¢2,326.37Shares
Seattle Sounders FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5
Under · NoValue$2KPnL+$65Avg90¢Current93¢2,170Shares
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
NoValue$1.8KPnL+$1.2KAvg19.8¢Current58.5¢3,060.16Shares
Set Handicap: Michael Zheng (-1.5) vs Yunchaokete Bu (+1.5)
Yunchaokete Bu · NoValue$1.6KPnL+$64Avg60¢Current62.5¢2,556Shares
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
YesValue$1.2KPnL+$322Avg72.9¢Current99.6¢1,207.66Shares
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
YesValue$1.2KPnL+$571Avg48.6¢Current93.6¢1,268.83Shares
Showing 8 of 154 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet alpheclabs: 46.7% win rate over 35,305 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −17.1% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −117.8%, n=1,260 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−16.3% over 1,207 fills); −$929K lifetime P&L, $89.8M traded, updated 2026-09-24.