PolyTrace
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Trader profile

0xb407…252c

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$9KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate74.3%109 settled · past 180 days2 open · 100% underwater · 2 hours ago
Lifetime volume$904.3K1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded736Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−85.4% / $95% interval −268.6% to +97.7%88 settled fills · 90d window
Crypto
−85.3%n=87 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 4 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 74.3% · Decided 109 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded2 hours ago
Current position value
$578
Snapshot cash PnL
−$58.1K
Concentration
72.7%
Largest share of value
Positions
153
Showing the largest 8 of 153
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
YesValue$421PnL−$329Avg52.6¢Current29.5¢1,425.93Shares
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
NoValue$156PnL−$44Avg62¢Current48.3¢322.58Shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
Up · YesValue$1PnL−$1.5KAvg56.6¢Current0.1¢2,648.31Shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET
Down · NoValue$0.48PnL−$423Avg44.5¢Current0.1¢951.85Shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET
Up · YesValue$0PnL−$775Avg86.5¢Current0¢895.49Shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
Up · YesValue$0PnL−$1.2KAvg44¢Current0¢2,729.33Shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
Down · NoValue$0PnL−$78Avg34.6¢Current0¢225.57Shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET
Up · YesValue$0PnL−$17Avg47.8¢Current0¢34.79Shares
Showing 8 of 153 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet 0xb4077d7ecb09e5478305fb0c71bc176a5eda252c: 74.3% win rate over 109 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −85.4% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −268.6%, n=88 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Crypto (−85.3% over 87 fills); −$9K lifetime P&L, $904.3K traded, updated 2026-09-24.