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Trader profile

Raskell

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$63.1KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate57.9%487 settled · past 90 days25 open · 88% underwater · 9 hours ago
Lifetime volume$2.5M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded932Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−14.1% / $95% interval −261.1% to +232.8%139 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
+32.5%n=11 settled
Science
+6.0%n=10 settled
Tech
−5.4%n=11 settled
Unmapped
−12.6%n=13 settled
Culture
−15.7%n=18 settled
Politics
−24.2%n=75 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 57.9% · Decided 487 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded9 hours ago
Current position value
$7.9K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$5.8K
Concentration
21.3%
Largest share of value
Positions
44
Showing the largest 8 of 44
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? (copy)
NoValue$1.7KPnL+$42Avg86.3¢Current88.5¢1,910Shares
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
YesValue$1.3KPnL−$1.1KAvg21.2¢Current11.5¢11,054.97Shares
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
YesValue$888PnL−$90Avg63.9¢Current58¢1,530.78Shares
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$697PnL+$80Avg78.8¢Current89¢782.77Shares
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$634PnL+$111Avg26¢Current31.5¢2,013.03Shares
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
YesValue$467PnL−$446Avg33.2¢Current17¢2,747.34Shares
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?
NoValue$425PnL+$181Avg12.2¢Current21.3¢1,999.98Shares
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$339PnL$0Avg5¢Current5¢6,779.67Shares
Showing 8 of 44 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Raskell: 57.9% win rate over 487 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −14.1% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −261.1%, n=139 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (+32.5% over 11 fills); +$63.1K lifetime P&L, $2.5M traded, updated 2026-09-23.