Trader profile

TwoEyes

Market makers

Profile updated2026-09-23

Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗

Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL−$32.7KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime

Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…11 open · 91% underwater · 6 hours ago

Lifetime volume$18M1,000+ trades · Polymarket

Markets traded627Lifetime coverage

Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed

−37.8% / $95% interval −279.2% to +203.6%42 settled fills · 90d window

Finance: −35.6%n=40 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 23 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Current holdings

Sources

Holdings use the current Polymarket portfolio snapshot.

Last loaded6 hours ago

Current position value: $38.2K
Snapshot cash PnL: −$785.3K
Concentration: 34.8%
Positions: 124

EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares

Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?

YesValue$13.3KPnL−$28Avg79.2¢Current79¢16,841.68Shares

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

YesValue$12.2KPnL−$27.3KAvg20.2¢Current6.3¢195,470.96Shares

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

YesValue$7.6KPnL+$2.7KAvg8.6¢Current13.4¢56,919.01Shares

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

YesValue$2.7KPnL+$17Avg3.9¢Current4¢69,538.06Shares

Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award?

YesValue$846PnL+$101Avg83.8¢Current95.2¢889.32Shares

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

YesValue$830PnL−$330Avg58¢Current41.5¢2,000Shares

Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship?

YesValue$225PnL−$125Avg0.7¢Current0.5¢50,000Shares

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

YesValue$222PnL−$40Avg26.1¢Current22.2¢1,000Shares

Showing 8 of 124 positions by current value

Results by category

Sources

Category results use decided positions from the last 90 days.

Results

Exposure

Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

8 days ago

BUYNO

No change · 89¢

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Open market →$39.3K

8 days ago

SELLYES

No change · 11¢

Fed Decision in September?Open market →$7.7K

13 days ago

SELLNO

25 bps increase · 18¢

Fed Decision in September?Open market →$3.3K

13 days ago

SELLNO

25 bps increase · 18¢

Fed Decision in September?Open market →$7.5K

13 days ago

BUYYES

25 bps increase · 82¢

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Open market →$3.3K

About this wallet

Wallet TwoEyes: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −37.8% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −279.2%, n=42 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Finance (−35.6% over 40 fills); −$32.7K lifetime P&L, $18M traded, updated 2026-09-23.