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Trader profile

Mithrandir.

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$11.1KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate72.4%791 settled · past 180 days634 open · 62% underwater · 21 hours ago
Lifetime volume$2.3M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded1,655Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−18.1% / $95% interval −737.2% to +700.9%11 settled fills · 90d window

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 4 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 72.4% · Decided 791 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded21 hours ago
Current position value
$68.6K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$24.5K
Concentration
4.3%
Largest share of value
Positions
887
Showing the largest 8 of 887
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$3KPnL−$868Avg80¢Current61.9¢4,782.98Shares
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?
NoValue$1.4KPnL+$103Avg89.7¢Current97.1¢1,400Shares
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
NoValue$1.2KPnL+$49Avg90.7¢Current94.5¢1,300.01Shares
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
NoValue$1.1KPnL+$60Avg88.5¢Current93.5¢1,200Shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
YesValue$917PnL−$897Avg46.5¢Current23.5¢3,900.65Shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
YesValue$884PnL+$135Avg83.7¢Current98.8¢894.89Shares
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$861PnL−$7Avg31.8¢Current31.5¢2,732.79Shares
Iran leadership change by December 31?
NoValue$855PnL+$91Avg76.4¢Current85.5¢1,000Shares
Showing 8 of 887 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Mithrandir.: 72.4% win rate over 791 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −18.1% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −737.2%, n=11 settled fills over 90 days); +$11.1K lifetime P&L, $2.3M traded, updated 2026-09-23.