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Trader profile

DancewithRisk

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$23.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate70.2%161 settled · past 180 days66 open · 82% underwater · 11 hours ago
Lifetime volume$2.4M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded331Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−9.5% / $95% interval −33.5% to +14.5%105 settled fills · 90d window
Finance
−8.7%n=104 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 5 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 70.2% · Decided 161 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded11 hours ago
Current position value
$21.5K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$4.8K
Concentration
12.5%
Largest share of value
Positions
66
Showing the largest 8 of 66
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
YesValue$2.7KPnL−$307Avg67.6¢Current60.7¢4,420.43Shares
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
YesValue$2.3KPnL+$154Avg23.2¢Current25¢9,029.18Shares
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?
NoValue$2.2KPnL−$84Avg81.7¢Current78.8¢2,839.9Shares
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?
YesValue$1.4KPnL+$483Avg33.5¢Current52.2¢2,591.8Shares
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T?
YesValue$980PnL−$198Avg21.6¢Current18¢5,445.35Shares
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?
YesValue$906PnL+$25Avg20.9¢Current21.5¢4,212.96Shares
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
YesValue$901PnL−$485Avg35.2¢Current22.9¢3,943.7Shares
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T?
YesValue$890PnL+$346Avg14.5¢Current23.7¢3,755.36Shares
Showing 8 of 66 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
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Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet DancewithRisk: 70.2% win rate over 161 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −9.5% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −33.5%, n=105 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Finance (−8.7% over 104 fills); +$23.4K lifetime P&L, $2.4M traded, updated 2026-09-24.