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Trader profile

EffyBig

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$11.6KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate47.8%226 settled · past 90 days1 open · 100% underwater · 11 hours ago
Lifetime volume$1.3M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded286Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−32.6% / $95% interval −687.4% to +622.2%16 settled fills · 90d window
Culture
−32.6%n=16 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 2 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 47.8% · Decided 226 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded11 hours ago
Current position value
$9
Snapshot cash PnL
−$2.9K
Concentration
100%
Largest share of value
Positions
66
Showing the largest 8 of 66
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
NoValue$9PnL−$0.58Avg87.6¢Current82.5¢11.42Shares
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$1Avg0.1¢Current0¢1,000Shares
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$5Avg0.1¢Current0¢5,000.01Shares
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$4Avg0.8¢Current0¢500Shares
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$11Avg0.5¢Current0¢2,003.63Shares
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$2Avg0.1¢Current0¢2,000Shares
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$3Avg0.1¢Current0¢2,500Shares
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$230Avg9.2¢Current0¢2,500Shares
Showing 8 of 66 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet EffyBig: 47.8% win rate over 226 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −32.6% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −687.4%, n=16 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Culture (−32.6% over 16 fills); +$11.6K lifetime P&L, $1.3M traded, updated 2026-09-23.