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Trader profile

Kevin-Warsh

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$13.1KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate—Only 18 settled so far5 open · 99% underwater · 5 hours ago
Lifetime volume$1.4M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded59Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−33.3% / $95% interval −413.3% to +346.6%21 settled fills · 90d window
Finance
−37.3%n=18 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 23 hours ago

How this record is measured

Too few positions have settled to establish a win-rate record.

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded5 hours ago
Current position value
$7.9K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$23.8K
Concentration
62.1%
Largest share of value
Positions
8
All shown
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
NoValue$4.9KPnL+$38Avg65¢Current65.5¢7,499.9Shares
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
NoValue$2.5KPnL−$38Avg34¢Current33.5¢7,499.89Shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
YesValue$458PnL−$7.7KAvg9.9¢Current0.5¢83,185.34Shares
Will SB Energy IPO by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$29PnL+$18Avg38.3¢Current97¢30.15Shares
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
NoValue$2PnL−$0.03Avg35¢Current34.5¢5Shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
YesValue$0PnL−$4.7KAvg20¢Current0¢23,485.91Shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
YesValue$0PnL−$4.7KAvg20¢Current0¢23,485.91Shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
YesValue$0PnL−$6.7KAvg20¢Current0¢33,485.91Shares
All 8 positions shown
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Kevin-Warsh: edge −33.3% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −413.3%, n=21 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Finance (−37.3% over 18 fills); +$13.1K lifetime P&L, $1.4M traded, updated 2026-09-23.