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Trader profile

ellio8989

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$14.6KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate—Only 9 settled so far8 open · 85% underwater · 8 hours ago
Lifetime volume$11.7M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded902Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−25.9% / $95% interval −69.1% to +17.3%93 settled fills · 90d window
Culture
−13.4%n=23 settled
Sports
−17.5%n=48 settled
Unmapped
−38.7%n=16 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

Too few positions have settled to establish a win-rate record.

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded8 hours ago
Current position value
$3.7K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$2.7K
Concentration
55.6%
Largest share of value
Positions
9
Showing the largest 8 of 9
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
YesValue$2.1KPnL−$983Avg36.2¢Current24.5¢8,434.34Shares
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
YesValue$606PnL+$126Avg40¢Current50.5¢1,199.43Shares
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?
YesValue$527PnL+$103Avg47.8¢Current59.5¢885.59Shares
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during their summit?
YesValue$173PnL+$17Avg27.5¢Current30.5¢568Shares
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during their summit?
YesValue$124PnL−$109Avg37.5¢Current20¢622.22Shares
Will Trump say "Mineral" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?
YesValue$96PnL+$25Avg18.8¢Current25.5¢378.19Shares
Will Trump say "Economy" or "Economic" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?
YesValue$88PnL+$13Avg30¢Current35¢250Shares
Will AfD win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
YesValue$33PnL−$585Avg51¢Current2.8¢1,212.39Shares
Showing 8 of 9 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet ellio8989: edge −25.9% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −69.1%, n=93 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Culture (−13.4% over 23 fills); +$14.6K lifetime P&L, $11.7M traded, updated 2026-09-23.