PolyTrace
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Trader profile

SlenderMan

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$237.7KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate79.3%58 settled · past 90 days21 open · 1% underwater · 17 hours ago
Lifetime volume$70.1M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded86Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−9.7% / $95% interval −162.7% to +143.3%197 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−9.7%n=197 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 2 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 79.3% · Decided 58 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded17 hours ago
Current position value
$438.3K
Snapshot cash PnL
+$20K
Concentration
28.3%
Largest share of value
Positions
21
Showing the largest 8 of 21
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
NoValue$124.2KPnL+$3.3KAvg82.3¢Current84.5¢146,927.27Shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
NoValue$110.8KPnL+$2.7KAvg83.4¢Current85.5¢129,599.99Shares
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
NoValue$68.9KPnL+$4.5KAvg68.2¢Current73¢94,349.78Shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$31.6KPnL+$825Avg83.3¢Current85.5¢37,000Shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
NoValue$27.2KPnL+$709Avg96.8¢Current99.4¢27,407.43Shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
NoValue$25.8KPnL+$871Avg76.8¢Current79.5¢32,514.56Shares
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$12.2KPnL+$4.1KAvg46.9¢Current70.5¢17,276.54Shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
NoValue$11KPnL+$577Avg87.2¢Current92¢11,936.67Shares
Showing 8 of 21 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet SlenderMan: 79.3% win rate over 58 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −9.7% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −162.7%, n=197 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−9.7% over 197 fills); −$237.7K lifetime P&L, $70.1M traded, updated 2026-09-23.