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Trader profile

Tenebrus7

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$144.2KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate64.9%820 settled · past 90 days336 open · 45% underwater · 7 hours ago
Lifetime volume$78.6M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded509Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−9.2% / $95% interval −147.4% to +128.9%450 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−0.2%n=252 settled
Sports
−15.6%n=27 settled
Finance
−20.3%n=162 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 22 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 64.9% · Decided 820 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded7 hours ago
Current position value
$299.2K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$10K
Concentration
6.2%
Largest share of value
Positions
364
Showing the largest 8 of 364
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
NoValue$18.5KPnL+$390Avg77.8¢Current79.5¢23,297.79Shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
NoValue$11.2KPnL+$286Avg84.3¢Current86.5¢12,914Shares
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
YesValue$9.2KPnL+$489Avg91.4¢Current96.6¢9,513.8Shares
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
YesValue$6.4KPnL+$162Avg92.9¢Current95.3¢6,757.04Shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YesValue$6.3KPnL+$804Avg50.8¢Current58.3¢10,820.57Shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
NoValue$5.1KPnL+$273Avg82.8¢Current87.5¢5,790.21Shares
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
YesValue$4.9KPnL+$62Avg83.4¢Current84.5¢5,762.76Shares
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
NoValue$4.6KPnL+$428Avg69.4¢Current76.5¢6,023.8Shares
Showing 8 of 364 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Tenebrus7: 64.9% win rate over 820 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −9.2% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −147.4%, n=450 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−0.2% over 252 fills); +$144.2K lifetime P&L, $78.6M traded, updated 2026-09-23.