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Trader profile

anciano

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$19.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate54.5%1,172 settled · past 90 days676 open · 38% underwater · 6 minutes ago
Lifetime volume$23.5M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded579Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−9.4% / $95% interval −70.1% to +51.2%27 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−9.4%n=27 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 23 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 54.5% · Decided 1,172 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Complete6 minutes ago
Current position value
$139.3K
Snapshot cash PnL
+$7.4K
Concentration
1.9%
Largest share of value
Positions
683
Showing the largest 8 of 683
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals?
YesValue$2.6KPnL+$870Avg30¢Current45¢5,797.32Shares
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?
YesValue$2.5KPnL+$1.1KAvg11.5¢Current20.5¢12,036Shares
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
YesValue$2KPnL+$1.2KAvg8.8¢Current21.5¢9,242.15Shares
Will the Washington Commanders make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
NoValue$1.9KPnL+$461Avg69.4¢Current91¢2,136.43Shares
Will the Washington Wizards make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?
NoValue$1.9KPnL+$46Avg72.2¢Current74¢2,571.32Shares
Will the season series between the Browns and Steelers end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
YesValue$1.8KPnL+$353Avg46.9¢Current58¢3,183.81Shares
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
NoValue$1.8KPnL−$29Avg78.8¢Current77.5¢2,286.82Shares
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
NoValue$1.7KPnL+$16Avg92.6¢Current93.5¢1,801.01Shares
Showing 8 of 683 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet anciano: 54.5% win rate over 1,172 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −9.4% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −70.1%, n=27 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−9.4% over 27 fills); +$19.4K lifetime P&L, $23.5M traded, updated 2026-09-24.