Trader profile

nellojello

Market makers

Profile updated2026-09-24

Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗

Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL+$10.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime

Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…49 open · 22% underwater · 41 minutes ago

Lifetime volume$470.5K1,000+ trades · Polymarket

Markets traded321Lifetime coverage

Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed

−18.9% / $95% interval −437.6% to +399.8%19 settled fills · 90d window

Politics: −11.0%n=16 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 23 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Current holdings

Sources

Holdings use the current Polymarket portfolio snapshot.

Complete41 minutes ago

Current position value: $15.7K
Snapshot cash PnL: +$492
Concentration: 14.1%
Positions: 55

EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?

NoValue$2.2KPnL+$626Avg41.6¢Current58¢3,810Shares

Will the Danube River return to normal levels between September 15 and September 30, 2026?

NoValue$1.8KPnL+$382Avg77.8¢Current99¢1,800.19Shares

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?

NoValue$998PnL+$44Avg76.9¢Current80.5¢1,240.31Shares

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

NoValue$983PnL+$95Avg83.6¢Current92.5¢1,063Shares

Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

YesValue$775PnL−$81Avg61.1¢Current55.4¢1,400.96Shares

Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026?

NoValue$757PnL+$46Avg82.2¢Current87.5¢864.65Shares

Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

YesValue$755PnL+$21Avg53¢Current54.5¢1,385Shares

Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?

NoValue$711PnL+$465Avg30.9¢Current89.5¢793.99Shares

Showing 8 of 55 positions by current value

Results by category

Sources

Category results use decided positions from the last 90 days.

Results

Exposure

Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

6 days ago

SELLYES

September 30 · 60.9¢

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?Open market →$1.1K

11 days ago

SELLNO

September 15 · 99.9¢

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14Open market →$1.1K

11 days ago

SELLNO

September 15 · 99.9¢

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14Open market →$1.2K

1 month ago

BUYNO

August 31 · 64¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?Open market →$1.2K

2 months ago

SELLNO

68,000 · 99.6¢

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 9?Open market →$2K

About this wallet

Wallet nellojello: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −18.9% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −437.6%, n=19 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−11.0% over 16 fills); +$10.4K lifetime P&L, $470.5K traded, updated 2026-09-24.