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Trader profile

Elias.Thornwell

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$7.1KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate65.9%6,564 settled · past 90 days2,593 open · 21% underwater · 8 hours ago
Lifetime volume$6.8M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded3,562Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−9.5% / $95% interval −205.6% to +186.5%54 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−0.9%n=20 settled
Finance
−14.1%n=23 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

Measured 22 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 65.9% · Decided 6,564 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Top 5,000
Last loaded8 hours ago

This snapshot reached the 5,000-position product limit. Showing up to 5,000 positions by size.

Current position value
$655.8K
Based on Top 5,000 positions
Snapshot cash PnL
−$46.4K
Based on Top 5,000 positions
Concentration
4.7%
Largest share of value
Positions
4,998
Showing the largest 8 of 4,998
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
NoValue$30.9KPnL+$338Avg95¢Current96.1¢32,137.24Shares
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
NoValue$23.3KPnL+$122Avg95¢Current95.6¢24,406.05Shares
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
NoValue$22.1KPnL+$796Avg93.2¢Current96.7¢22,872.31Shares
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
NoValue$15.2KPnL+$766Avg91.7¢Current96.6¢15,715.94Shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
NoValue$13.5KPnL+$916Avg80.6¢Current86.5¢15,600.17Shares
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
NoValue$13KPnL+$360Avg95.5¢Current98.3¢13,182.06Shares
Trump out as President before 2027?
NoValue$12.5KPnL+$475Avg91.9¢Current95.5¢13,095.52Shares
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
NoValue$11.2KPnL+$660Avg91.6¢Current97.4¢11,519.61Shares
Showing 8 of 4,998 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Elias.Thornwell: 65.9% win rate over 6,564 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −9.5% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −205.6%, n=54 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−0.9% over 20 fills); +$7.1K lifetime P&L, $6.8M traded, updated 2026-09-23.