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Trader profile

oraclewar

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$23.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate39.5%2,653 settled · past 180 days3 open · >99% underwater · 1 day ago
Lifetime volume$2.8M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded1,843Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−23.0% / $95% interval −56.7% to +10.6%32 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−23.0%n=32 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 39.5% · Decided 2,653 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded1 day ago
Current position value
$25
Snapshot cash PnL
−$436.5K
Concentration
78.1%
Largest share of value
Positions
1,452
Showing the largest 8 of 1,452
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$19PnL−$0.96Avg84¢Current80¢24Shares
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$5PnL+$0.04Avg99¢Current99.7¢5Shares
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
YesValue$0.40PnL−$33Avg33¢Current0.4¢100Shares
Roland Garros ATP: Michael Zheng vs Dino Prizmic
Michael Zheng · YesValue$0PnL−$160Avg16¢Current0¢1,000Shares
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis
Maddison Inglis · NoValue$0PnL−$66Avg17¢Current0¢385.72Shares
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner
PARIVISION · NoValue$0PnL−$92Avg40¢Current0¢230Shares
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner
Xtreme Gaming · YesValue$0PnL−$360Avg36¢Current0¢1,000Shares
Colombia leading at halftime?
YesValue$0PnL−$465Avg31¢Current0¢1,500Shares
Showing 8 of 1,452 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet oraclewar: 39.5% win rate over 2,653 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −23.0% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −56.7%, n=32 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−23.0% over 32 fills); −$23.4K lifetime P&L, $2.8M traded, updated 2026-09-22.