PolyTrace
← Back to wallets

Trader profile

risk-manager

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$194.7KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate55.8%174 settled · past 90 days63 open · 80% underwater · 4 hours ago
Lifetime volume$698.5M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded45Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+21.9% / $95% interval −1.0% to +44.9%211 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
+21.5%n=191 settled
Finance
+14.9%n=20 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 55.8% · Decided 174 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded4 hours ago
Current position value
$156K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$33.9K
Concentration
18.8%
Largest share of value
Positions
68
Showing the largest 8 of 68
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
NoValue$29.4KPnL+$3.6KAvg80.7¢Current91.9¢31,969.2Shares
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
NoValue$19.6KPnL−$1KAvg79.5¢Current75.5¢25,999.97Shares
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
NoValue$14.5KPnL+$398Avg94¢Current96.7¢14,999.99Shares
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
NoValue$13.9KPnL+$1.5KAvg83.7¢Current93.5¢14,916.45Shares
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YesValue$13.2KPnL−$19.3KAvg30.9¢Current12.6¢105,000.11Shares
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
NoValue$9.3KPnL+$950Avg83¢Current92.5¢10,000.39Shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
NoValue$8.7KPnL+$375Avg82.7¢Current86.5¢10,000.01Shares
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YesValue$7.7KPnL−$9.8KAvg0.8¢Current0.4¢2,194,023.22Shares
Showing 8 of 68 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet risk-manager: 55.8% win rate over 174 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge +21.9% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −1.0%, n=211 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (+21.5% over 191 fills); +$194.7K lifetime P&L, $698.5M traded, updated 2026-09-24.