PolyTrace
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Trader profile

AiBird

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$129.7KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate48.5%2,871 settled · past 90 days320 open · 84% underwater · 2 hours ago
Lifetime volume$259.4M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded1,076Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−7.5% / $95% interval −175.5% to +160.5%17 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−12.7%n=10 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 24 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 48.5% · Decided 2,871 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded2 hours ago
Current position value
$30.4K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$30.3K
Concentration
7.5%
Largest share of value
Positions
1,103
Showing the largest 8 of 1,103
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
NoValue$2.3KPnL−$60Avg13.9¢Current13.5¢16,941.56Shares
Will there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
YesValue$1.7KPnL−$350Avg15.1¢Current12.5¢13,265.61Shares
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?
YesValue$975PnL−$230Avg13¢Current10.5¢9,285.15Shares
Republican House odds hit 20% by October 31?
YesValue$808PnL−$372Avg12.4¢Current8.5¢9,505.24Shares
Will ISM Services PMI be between 57.0 and 57.9 in September?
NoValue$756PnL+$74Avg75.7¢Current84¢900.83Shares
Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?
YesValue$735PnL+$112Avg24.6¢Current29¢2,533.03Shares
Will Trump say "Melania" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?
YesValue$680PnL−$63Avg57.4¢Current52.5¢1,295.25Shares
Will three people dissent the January Fed decision?
NoValue$612PnL+$32Avg69.6¢Current73.5¢832.43Shares
Showing 8 of 1,103 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet AiBird: 48.5% win rate over 2,871 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −7.5% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −175.5%, n=17 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−12.7% over 10 fills); +$129.7K lifetime P&L, $259.4M traded, updated 2026-09-24.