PolyTrace
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Trader profile

sleepy-panda

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$1.3MPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate61.9%202 settled · past 90 days57 open · 43% underwater · 7 hours ago
Lifetime volume$184.3M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded322Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−51.8% / $95% interval −184.6% to +81.1%347 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−39.3%n=261 settled
Politics
−60.5%n=23 settled
Finance
−71.2%n=62 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 2 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 61.9% · Decided 202 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded7 hours ago
Current position value
$78.4K
Snapshot cash PnL
+$6.3K
Concentration
53.3%
Largest share of value
Positions
58
Showing the largest 8 of 58
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
NoValue$41.8KPnL+$15.5KAvg50¢Current79.4¢52,651Shares
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YesValue$10.9KPnL−$15.5KAvg50¢Current20.7¢52,651Shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
YesValue$8KPnL−$2.5KAvg44¢Current33.5¢23,982Shares
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YesValue$3.4KPnL+$3.3KAvg0.5¢Current11.5¢30,000Shares
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YesValue$2.6KPnL+$2.5KAvg0.5¢Current8.8¢30,000Shares
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YesValue$2.4KPnL+$2.3KAvg0.5¢Current8.2¢30,000Shares
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YesValue$1.3KPnL+$1.2KAvg0.5¢Current4.4¢30,000Shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
YesValue$926PnL+$3Avg64.3¢Current64.5¢1,436Shares
Showing 8 of 58 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet sleepy-panda: 61.9% win rate over 202 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −51.8% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −184.6%, n=347 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−39.3% over 261 fills); −$1.3M lifetime P&L, $184.3M traded, updated 2026-09-24.