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Trader profile

TheLightFire

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$786Polymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate—Not measured yet2 open · 100% underwater · 2 days ago
Lifetime volume$224.6K1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded420Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−3.8% / $95% interval −352.4% to +344.9%12 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−3.8%n=12 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 24 minutes ago

How this record is measured

This wallet's win rate has not been measured yet.

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded15 hours ago
Current position value
$333
Snapshot cash PnL
−$23.5K
Concentration
88.7%
Largest share of value
Positions
195
Showing the largest 8 of 195
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
YesValue$295PnL−$1.9KAvg16.7¢Current2.2¢13,410.2Shares
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?
YesValue$38PnL−$561Avg23.9¢Current1.5¢2,506.71Shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?
YesValue$0PnL−$550Avg55¢Current0¢999.99Shares
LoL: Fnatic vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs
Fnatic · YesValue$0PnL−$25Avg41¢Current0¢60Shares
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports - Game 4 Winner
paiN Gaming Academy · YesValue$0PnL−$3Avg3¢Current0¢100Shares
Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+2.5)
Top Esports · YesValue$0PnL−$2.5KAvg59.2¢Current0¢4,135.65Shares
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs
LOS · YesValue$0PnL−$364Avg50.3¢Current0¢724.71Shares
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2
HANJIN BRION Challengers · NoValue$0PnL−$21Avg20.8¢Current0¢100Shares
Showing 8 of 195 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

BUYYES
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5) · 78¢
Lol T1 Fur 2026 07 06Open market →
no result
$3K
SELLYES
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) · 99.9¢
Lol Blg Ly 2026 07 05Open market →
no result
$3K
BUYYES
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5) · 79¢
Lol T1 Fur 2026 07 06Open market →
no result
$5.6K

About this wallet

Wallet TheLightFire: edge −3.8% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −352.4%, n=12 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−3.8% over 12 fills); +$786 lifetime P&L, $224.6K traded, updated 2026-09-23.