PolyTrace
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Trader profile

ToadLord

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$54.6KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate—Only 11 settled so far1 open · 100% underwater · 17 hours ago
Lifetime volume$8.6M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded159Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−61.5% / $95% interval −386.1% to +263.0%24 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−61.5%n=24 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

Too few positions have settled to establish a win-rate record.

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded17 hours ago
Current position value
$356
Snapshot cash PnL
−$6.2K
Concentration
100%
Largest share of value
Positions
11
Showing the largest 8 of 11
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?
YesValue$356PnL−$1.1KAvg1.5¢Current0.4¢101,801.69Shares
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?
YesValue$0PnL−$15Avg0.9¢Current0¢1,669.53Shares
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card)
Belal Muhammad · YesValue$0PnL−$215Avg46.4¢Current0¢463.15Shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?
YesValue$0PnL−$79Avg5¢Current0¢1,602.11Shares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
YesValue$0PnL−$3.5KAvg1.6¢Current0¢222,489.83Shares
Will England win on 2026-07-15?
YesValue$0PnL−$54Avg34.2¢Current0¢156.46Shares
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
YesValue$0PnL−$30Avg1.7¢Current0¢1,752.81Shares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?
YesValue$0PnL−$303Avg0.6¢Current0¢47,291.39Shares
Showing 8 of 11 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet ToadLord: edge −61.5% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −386.1%, n=24 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−61.5% over 24 fills); −$54.6K lifetime P&L, $8.6M traded, updated 2026-09-23.