PolyTrace
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Trader profile

ratehikes

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$275.7KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate—Only 13 settled so far9 open · 1% underwater · 17 hours ago
Lifetime volume$3.9M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded30Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+68.4% / $95% interval −43.8% to +180.6%50 settled fills · 90d window
Finance
+68.4%n=50 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 4 hours ago

How this record is measured

Too few positions have settled to establish a win-rate record.

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded17 hours ago
Current position value
$107.6K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$49.2K
Concentration
56.9%
Largest share of value
Positions
12
Showing the largest 8 of 12
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
YesValue$61.2KPnL+$49.8KAvg12.8¢Current68.5¢89,337.69Shares
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
YesValue$37.9KPnL+$14KAvg60.7¢Current96.5¢39,282.54Shares
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
YesValue$3KPnL+$2.1KAvg23.6¢Current85.5¢3,466.77Shares
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
YesValue$2.5KPnL+$2KAvg10.8¢Current55.3¢4,548.8Shares
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?
NoValue$1.2KPnL+$493Avg56¢Current95.8¢1,239.38Shares
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
YesValue$1.2KPnL+$945Avg5.6¢Current31¢3,720.88Shares
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
YesValue$439PnL−$424Avg18.1¢Current9.2¢4,773.98Shares
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?
YesValue$220PnL−$21Avg27.9¢Current25.5¢864.2Shares
Showing 8 of 12 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet ratehikes: edge +68.4% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −43.8%, n=50 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Finance (+68.4% over 50 fills); +$275.7K lifetime P&L, $3.9M traded, updated 2026-09-23.