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Trader profile

caspar1248

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$13.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate29.4%2,741 settled · past 180 days370 open · 59% underwater · 6 hours ago
Lifetime volume$3.5M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded2,989Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−33.0% / $95% interval −357.3% to +291.3%92 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−33.0%n=89 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 4 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 29.4% · Decided 2,741 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded6 hours ago
Current position value
$21.9K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$43.3K
Concentration
5.2%
Largest share of value
Positions
1,460
Showing the largest 8 of 1,460
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?
NoValue$1.1KPnL+$589Avg44¢Current91.3¢1,245.85Shares
Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw?
NoValue$975PnL+$224Avg77¢Current100¢975.95Shares
Chengdu Open: Nuno Borges vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Nuno Borges · YesValue$920PnL−$9Avg51¢Current50.5¢1,821.47Shares
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the fourth-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
NoValue$882PnL+$46Avg94.8¢Current100¢882Shares
Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
NoValue$857PnL+$397Avg53.4¢Current99.7¢859.55Shares
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?
YesValue$693PnL+$665Avg4¢Current99.1¢700Shares
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?
YesValue$655PnL+$634Avg2.9¢Current93.5¢700Shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?
YesValue$644PnL+$622Avg3.1¢Current92¢700Shares
Showing 8 of 1,460 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet caspar1248: 29.4% win rate over 2,741 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −33.0% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −357.3%, n=92 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−33.0% over 89 fills); +$13.4K lifetime P&L, $3.5M traded, updated 2026-09-24.