PolyTrace
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Trader profile

ExcaIibur

Market makers
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL−$292Polymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…7 open · >99% underwater · 2 days ago
Lifetime volume$252.4K754 trades · Polymarket
Markets traded92Lifetime coverage
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−23.5% / $95% interval −643.6% to +596.5%28 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−20.5%n=16 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded2 days ago
Current position value
$2.6K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$4K
Concentration
37.9%
Largest share of value
Positions
14
Showing the largest 8 of 14
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$984PnL−$261Avg86.1¢Current68¢1,447.32Shares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
YesValue$665PnL−$695Avg91¢Current44.5¢1,495.02Shares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
YesValue$534PnL−$2.2KAvg83.2¢Current16.5¢3,234.56Shares
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$271PnL−$321Avg70.2¢Current32.2¢843.93Shares
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?
YesValue$93PnL+$2Avg22¢Current22.5¢413.36Shares
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
YesValue$49PnL−$46Avg38¢Current19.5¢250Shares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
YesValue$3PnL−$46Avg21.4¢Current1.1¢226.92Shares
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?
NoValue$0PnL−$165Avg16.6¢Current0¢993.75Shares
Showing 8 of 14 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
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Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet ExcaIibur: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −23.5% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −643.6%, n=28 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−20.5% over 16 fills); −$292 lifetime P&L, $252.4K traded, updated 2026-09-22.