PolyTrace
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Trader profile

AMike

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$7.2KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate—Only 14 settled so far7 open · 95% underwater · 13 hours ago
Lifetime volume$845.9K612 trades · Polymarket
Markets traded26Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−11.8% / $95% interval −391.7% to +368.1%25 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−9.5%n=24 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 24 hours ago

How this record is measured

Too few positions have settled to establish a win-rate record.

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded13 hours ago
Current position value
$15K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$2.1K
Concentration
92.9%
Largest share of value
Positions
8
All shown
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
NoValue$14KPnL−$57Avg92.4¢Current92¢15,174.79Shares
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?
YesValue$743PnL−$21Avg47.4¢Current46.1¢1,611.52Shares
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
NoValue$233PnL−$268Avg22.5¢Current10.5¢2,220Shares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
YesValue$51PnL+$9Avg7¢Current8.5¢596.66Shares
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
YesValue$17PnL+$3Avg14¢Current16.5¢101.86Shares
Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
YesValue$14PnL+$8Avg38¢Current87¢16.24Shares
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?
NoValue$9PnL+$0.14Avg45.7¢Current46.4¢20.29Shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
YesValue$0PnL−$1.8KAvg36¢Current0¢5,000Shares
All 8 positions shown
Results
Exposure
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Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet AMike: edge −11.8% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −391.7%, n=25 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−9.5% over 24 fills); +$7.2K lifetime P&L, $845.9K traded, updated 2026-09-23.