Trader profile
Historical record
Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.
A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.
This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.
Measured 2 hours ago
Win rate 51.6% · Decided 31 · 90d
Observed activity
Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.
No category data for this wallet.
No tracked trading behavior yet.
Holdings use the current Polymarket portfolio snapshot.
Category results use decided positions from the last 90 days.
Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.
Recent activity
Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.
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Large trades
Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations
Wallet carlos484: 51.6% win rate over 31 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −14.7% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −204.4%, n=43 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−8.2% over 37 fills); +$15.7K lifetime P&L, $498.6K traded, updated 2026-09-24.
