PolyTrace
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Trader profile

novice99

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$772.1KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate—Not measured yet5 open · 73% underwater · 3 days ago
Lifetime volume$9.3M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded14Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−78.3% / $95% interval −85.7% to −70.8%54 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−78.3%n=54 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 24 hours ago

How this record is measured

This wallet's win rate has not been measured yet.

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded3 days ago
Current position value
$45.6K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$604.8K
Concentration
30.5%
Largest share of value
Positions
11
Showing the largest 8 of 11
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YesValue$13.9KPnL+$3.8KAvg13.4¢Current18.5¢75,440.95Shares
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YesValue$12.2KPnL+$2.1KAvg7.4¢Current9¢136,836.87Shares
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YesValue$10.4KPnL+$5.6KAvg6.1¢Current13.1¢79,961.78Shares
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YesValue$5.6KPnL−$29KAvg2.2¢Current0.4¢1,587,875.24Shares
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YesValue$3.5KPnL−$2.1KAvg0.7¢Current0.5¢771,794.35Shares
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
YesValue$0PnL−$227.4KAvg52.1¢Current0¢436,822.48Shares
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?
YesValue$0PnL−$9.5KAvg18.5¢Current0¢51,308.15Shares
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?
YesValue$0PnL−$80.1KAvg53.9¢Current0¢148,595.41Shares
Showing 8 of 11 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet novice99: edge −78.3% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −85.7%, n=54 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−78.3% over 54 fills); −$772.1K lifetime P&L, $9.3M traded, updated 2026-09-21.