PolyTrace
← Back to wallets

Trader profile

CakeBake

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$24.3KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate83.1%427 settled · past 180 days14 open · 7% underwater · 3 hours ago
Lifetime volume$3M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded679Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−5.0% / $95% interval −62.6% to +52.6%333 settled fills · 90d window
Unmapped
+12.5%n=33 settled
Culture
−7.4%n=300 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 4 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 83.1% · Decided 427 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded3 hours ago
Current position value
$30.6K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$47.3K
Concentration
18.3%
Largest share of value
Positions
44
Showing the largest 8 of 44
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?
NoValue$5.6KPnL+$3Avg99.8¢Current99.9¢5,608.12Shares
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.75 and 65 million views on day 5?
NoValue$4.7KPnL+$17Avg99.4¢Current99.8¢4,690.96Shares
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62.5 and 63.75 million views on day 5?
NoValue$4.4KPnL−$4Avg99.6¢Current99.6¢4,451.82Shares
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?
NoValue$3.7KPnL+$6Avg99.8¢Current100¢3,665.6Shares
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 100 million views on week 1?
NoValue$3.3KPnL+$2Avg99.9¢Current100¢3,258.46Shares
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1?
NoValue$3.2KPnL+$80Avg97.4¢Current100¢3,156.21Shares
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
NoValue$3KPnL+$3KAvg0¢Current99.9¢3,000Shares
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 65 million views on day 5?
NoValue$2KPnL+$0.50Avg99.8¢Current99.9¢2,007.38Shares
Showing 8 of 44 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet CakeBake: 83.1% win rate over 427 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −5.0% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −62.6%, n=333 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Culture (−7.4% over 300 fills); −$24.3K lifetime P&L, $3M traded, updated 2026-09-24.