PolyTrace
← Back to wallets

Trader profile

AlAhmeda

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$103KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate70.8%2,006 settled · past 90 days232 open · 48% underwater · 3 hours ago
Lifetime volume$12.2M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded1,232Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−37.7% / $95% interval −455.3% to +380.0%138 settled fills · 90d window
Finance
−27.7%n=13 settled
Politics
−33.1%n=112 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 22 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 70.8% · Decided 2,006 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded3 hours ago
Current position value
$236K
Snapshot cash PnL
+$508
Concentration
10.6%
Largest share of value
Positions
232
Showing the largest 8 of 232
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$25.1KPnL+$1KAvg92¢Current96¢26,158.72Shares
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
NoValue$25KPnL+$26Avg95.5¢Current95.6¢26,121.92Shares
Iran leadership change by December 31?
NoValue$20.5KPnL+$141Avg84.9¢Current85.5¢23,999.97Shares
Iran leadership change by September 30?
NoValue$13.5KPnL+$391Avg96.5¢Current99.4¢13,604.54Shares
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
NoValue$13.2KPnL+$429Avg85.6¢Current88.5¢14,909.66Shares
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YesValue$12.1KPnL+$253Avg83.2¢Current85¢14,223.37Shares
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
NoValue$7.8KPnL+$148Avg72.6¢Current74¢10,476.78Shares
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$7.7KPnL+$151Avg97.3¢Current99.2¢7,738.54Shares
Showing 8 of 232 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet AlAhmeda: 70.8% win rate over 2,006 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −37.7% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −455.3%, n=138 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Finance (−27.7% over 13 fills); −$103K lifetime P&L, $12.2M traded, updated 2026-09-24.