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Trader profile

Moonshot1019

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$34.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate55.8%448 settled · past 180 days5 open · 1% underwater · 4 hours ago
Lifetime volume$4M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded484Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+2.3% / $95% interval −117.0% to +121.5%321 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
+15.2%n=192 settled
Finance
−17.9%n=26 settled
Sports
−21.6%n=87 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 23 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 55.8% · Decided 448 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded4 hours ago
Current position value
$116.4K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$203K
Concentration
38.9%
Largest share of value
Positions
165
Showing the largest 8 of 165
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$45.3KPnL+$5.8KAvg80.6¢Current92.5¢48,989.23Shares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
NoValue$28.2KPnL+$1.1KAvg95.2¢Current99.1¢28,485.62Shares
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$18.3KPnL+$4.9KAvg70.6¢Current96.7¢18,895.19Shares
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
NoValue$15KPnL−$204Avg94.8¢Current93.6¢16,012.07Shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
NoValue$9.6KPnL+$1.6KAvg76.6¢Current92¢10,402.02Shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?
YesValue$0PnL−$650Avg62.2¢Current0¢1,045.4Shares
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?
YesValue$0PnL−$800Avg50.5¢Current0¢1,583.21Shares
Los Cabos Open: Arthur Gea vs Michael Zheng
Michael Zheng · NoValue$0PnL−$500Avg62¢Current0¢806.45Shares
Showing 8 of 165 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Moonshot1019: 55.8% win rate over 448 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge +2.3% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −117.0%, n=321 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (+15.2% over 192 fills); +$34.4K lifetime P&L, $4M traded, updated 2026-09-24.