Last loaded6 hours ago
- Current position value
- $0
- Snapshot cash PnL
- −$19.2K
- Concentration
- — Largest share of value
- Positions
- 29 Showing the largest 8 of 29
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Showing 8 of 29 positions by current value
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Trader profile
FishfulThinking
DirectionalHistorical record
Loss-making historically.
Lifetime PnL−$10.6KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate75.4%284 settled · past 180 days0 open · 1 month ago
Lifetime volume$1.1M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded271Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price
How this is computedProfit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.
−13.8% / $95% interval −242.9% to +215.4%66 settled fills · 90d window
- Sports
- −13.8%n=66 settled
A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.
This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.
Measured 24 hours ago
How this record is measured
Win rate 75.4% · Decided 284 · 180d
Observed activity
Where and how this wallet trades
Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.
No category data for this wallet.
No tracked trading behavior yet.
Current holdings
Sources
Holdings use the current Polymarket portfolio snapshot.
Results by category
Sources
Category results use decided positions from the last 90 days.
Results
Exposure
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Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.
Recent activity
Whale activity over 30 days
Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.
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Large trades
Recent large trades
Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations
✓ won — Market settled and this position won.
$2.1K✓ won — Market settled and this position won.
$1.3K✓ won — Market settled and this position won.
$1K✗ lost — Market settled and this position lost.
$1K✓ won — Market settled and this position won.
$3KAbout this wallet
Wallet FishfulThinking: 75.4% win rate over 284 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −13.8% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −242.9%, n=66 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−13.8% over 66 fills); −$10.6K lifetime P&L, $1.1M traded, updated 2026-09-24.