PolyTrace
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Trader profile

pagliacci4

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$13.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate80%873 settled · past 180 days34 open · 27% underwater · 4 hours ago
Lifetime volume$1.8M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded1,517Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−3.6% / $95% interval −65.9% to +58.7%253 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−2.5%n=217 settled
Politics
−10.1%n=22 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 22 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 80% · Decided 873 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded4 hours ago
Current position value
$31.1K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$49.2K
Concentration
40.6%
Largest share of value
Positions
135
Showing the largest 8 of 135
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Yabloko win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?
NoValue$12.6KPnL+$948Avg92.4¢Current99.9¢12,628.61Shares
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
YesValue$3KPnL+$64Avg97¢Current99.2¢2,981.96Shares
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
YesValue$2.8KPnL−$1Avg98¢Current98¢2,869.27Shares
Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
YesValue$2.5KPnL+$9Avg98¢Current98.4¢2,508.98Shares
Nigeria Quadrangular T20 Series: Nigeria vs Sierra Leone
Nigeria · YesValue$2.3KPnL−$345Avg69¢Current60¢3,843.58Shares
Will United Russia win the next Murmansk Oblast Parliament elections?
YesValue$1.8KPnL−$14Avg99.1¢Current98.4¢1,817.69Shares
Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?
YesValue$1.1KPnL+$12Avg98.5¢Current99.6¢1,085.41Shares
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?
NoValue$924PnL−$9Avg96.7¢Current95.8¢964.81Shares
Showing 8 of 135 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet pagliacci4: 80% win rate over 873 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −3.6% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −65.9%, n=253 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−2.5% over 217 fills); −$13.4K lifetime P&L, $1.8M traded, updated 2026-09-24.