PolyTrace
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Trader profile

PaddyAlpha

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$55KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate35.3%51 settled · past 90 days668 open · 76% underwater · 13 hours ago
Lifetime volume$23.7M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded418Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+12.6% / $95% interval −743.8% to +769.0%27 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−12.9%n=19 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 35.3% · Decided 51 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded13 hours ago
Current position value
$81.9K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$23.9K
Concentration
3.7%
Largest share of value
Positions
972
Showing the largest 8 of 972
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
NoValue$3KPnL−$1Avg98.2¢Current98.2¢3,047.48Shares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$2.7KPnL−$200Avg66.5¢Current61.9¢4,333.19Shares
Another GTA VI trailer released by September 30?
NoValue$1.9KPnL+$11Avg95¢Current95.5¢2,028.84Shares
Will Argentina dollarize by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$1.6KPnL+$422Avg70.4¢Current94.7¢1,738.45Shares
Will Alysa Liu be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
NoValue$1.5KPnL−$14Avg94.9¢Current94¢1,554.98Shares
Will Stranger Things be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?
NoValue$1.5KPnL−$90Avg85.3¢Current80.3¢1,810.51Shares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
YesValue$1.4KPnL−$161Avg36.1¢Current32.5¢4,425.05Shares
Iran leadership change by December 31?
NoValue$1.3KPnL+$27Avg83.7¢Current85.5¢1,546.89Shares
Showing 8 of 972 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet PaddyAlpha: 35.3% win rate over 51 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge +12.6% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −743.8%, n=27 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−12.9% over 19 fills); +$55K lifetime P&L, $23.7M traded, updated 2026-09-23.