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Trader profile

Rex416

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$32.7KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate62.2%1,936 settled · past 90 days70 open · 41% underwater · 3 hours ago
Lifetime volume$24.2M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded1,017Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−8.4% / $95% interval −71.1% to +54.4%568 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−2.4%n=349 settled
Unmapped
−11.5%n=33 settled
Politics
−15.3%n=131 settled
Culture
−22.1%n=34 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 22 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 62.2% · Decided 1,936 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded3 hours ago
Current position value
$19K
Snapshot cash PnL
+$2.2K
Concentration
42.8%
Largest share of value
Positions
70
Showing the largest 8 of 70
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
YesValue$8.2KPnL+$4.7KAvg41.7¢Current98.5¢8,279.12Shares
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?
NoValue$4.3KPnL+$1.7KAvg53.2¢Current86.6¢4,999.96Shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mark Carney by September 30, 2026?
YesValue$1.2KPnL+$95Avg90.9¢Current98.5¢1,249.76Shares
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?
YesValue$1.2KPnL−$778Avg36.6¢Current22¢5,320Shares
Will Paddy Pimblett fight Charles Oliveira next?
NoValue$983PnL+$176Avg79.4¢Current96.8¢1,014.99Shares
Will Ľubica Horváthová win the 2026 Trnava mayoral election?
NoValue$704PnL+$79Avg88.1¢Current99.3¢708.99Shares
Will Leila do Vôlei win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?
YesValue$282PnL−$136Avg57.8¢Current39¢722.39Shares
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?
YesValue$185PnL+$23Avg14.9¢Current17¢1,085.61Shares
Showing 8 of 70 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Rex416: 62.2% win rate over 1,936 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −8.4% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −71.1%, n=568 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−2.4% over 349 fills); −$32.7K lifetime P&L, $24.2M traded, updated 2026-09-24.