PolyTrace
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Trader profile

polio123

Market makers
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL+$6.8KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…5 open · >99% underwater · 17 hours ago
Lifetime volume$1.5M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded742Lifetime coverage
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−34.3% / $95% interval −352.1% to +283.4%50 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−30.0%n=46 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 4 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded17 hours ago
Current position value
$91
Snapshot cash PnL
−$1.8K
Concentration
46.2%
Largest share of value
Positions
15
Showing the largest 8 of 15
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$42PnL−$57Avg20¢Current8.5¢497.33Shares
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?
YesValue$31PnL−$8Avg6.9¢Current5.5¢560Shares
Will Trump rename an ocean in 2026?
YesValue$14PnL−$5Avg5¢Current3.7¢374.4Shares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
YesValue$3PnL−$51Avg12.2¢Current0.7¢441.8Shares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
YesValue$2PnL+$0.05Avg17¢Current17.5¢10Shares
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1?
YesValue$0PnL−$3Avg1.5¢Current0¢191.44Shares
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$1.3KAvg38.1¢Current0¢3,312.23Shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$9Avg0.2¢Current0¢5,557.5Shares
Showing 8 of 15 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
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Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet polio123: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −34.3% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −352.1%, n=50 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−30.0% over 46 fills); +$6.8K lifetime P&L, $1.5M traded, updated 2026-09-23.