PolyTrace
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Trader profile

Arman2

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$11.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate56.3%606 settled · past 180 days7 open · 86% underwater · 7 hours ago
Lifetime volume$3.1M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded650Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−17.5% / $95% interval −395.7% to +360.7%55 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−14.2%n=44 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 56.3% · Decided 606 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded7 hours ago
Current position value
$4.7K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$554
Concentration
52.3%
Largest share of value
Positions
7
All shown
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?
NoValue$2.5KPnL+$42Avg52.1¢Current53¢4,647.33Shares
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?
NoValue$1KPnL−$46Avg23.3¢Current22.3¢4,500Shares
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?
NoValue$614PnL−$547Avg31.2¢Current16.5¢3,721.35Shares
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$286PnL−$73Avg87.3¢Current69.5¢411.69Shares
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$192PnL+$29Avg60.8¢Current71.5¢267.9Shares
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$136PnL+$36Avg38¢Current51.5¢263.16Shares
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$20PnL+$5Avg12.8¢Current17.5¢111.87Shares
All 7 positions shown
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Arman2: 56.3% win rate over 606 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −17.5% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −395.7%, n=55 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−14.2% over 44 fills); −$11.4K lifetime P&L, $3.1M traded, updated 2026-09-24.