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Trader profile

jarosbill

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$94.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate48.3%604 settled · past 90 days4 open · 66% underwater · 1 hour ago
Lifetime volume$7.7M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded721Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+3.1% / $95% interval −7.6% to +13.9%709 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
+3.4%n=692 settled
Unmapped
−3.4%n=17 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 21 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 48.3% · Decided 604 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded1 hour ago
Current position value
$3.6K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$1.3M
Concentration
54.7%
Largest share of value
Positions
311
Showing the largest 8 of 311
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics
Athletics · NoValue$2KPnL+$748Avg54¢Current86.5¢2,300Shares
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies · NoValue$1KPnL−$277Avg24.9¢Current19.5¢5,133.72Shares
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
Texas Rangers · NoValue$642PnL+$12Avg76¢Current77.5¢828Shares
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves
Cincinnati Reds · YesValue$1PnL−$1.2KAvg42¢Current0.1¢2,800Shares
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)
San Francisco Giants · YesValue$0.50PnL+$0.38Avg23.5¢Current100¢0.5Shares
National Bank Open: Maya Joint vs Liudmila Samsonova
Maya Joint · YesValue$0PnL−$2.4KAvg36¢Current0¢6,600Shares
Dota 2: OG vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner
Inner Circle · NoValue$0PnL−$1.9KAvg29.9¢Current0¢6,351.9Shares
Will Real Madrid win on 2026-08-16?
NoValue$0PnL−$1.3KAvg26¢Current0¢4,830Shares
Showing 8 of 311 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet jarosbill: 48.3% win rate over 604 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge +3.1% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −7.6%, n=709 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (+3.4% over 692 fills); −$94.4K lifetime P&L, $7.7M traded, updated 2026-09-24.