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Trader profile

failstober

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$451KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate26.7%60 settled · past 90 days119 open · 68% underwater · 4 hours ago
Lifetime volume$39.8M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded174Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−7.1% / $95% interval −230.7% to +216.5%22 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−8.0%n=21 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 26.7% · Decided 60 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded4 hours ago
Current position value
$122.9K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$145.2K
Concentration
56.9%
Largest share of value
Positions
166
Showing the largest 8 of 166
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YesValue$69.9KPnL−$17.8KAvg22.9¢Current18.3¢383,099.64Shares
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
YesValue$11.5KPnL+$2.6KAvg39.6¢Current51.2¢22,438.93Shares
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
NoValue$9.8KPnL+$469Avg75.6¢Current79.4¢12,400.01Shares
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
YesValue$4.9KPnL+$701Avg1.8¢Current2.1¢240,555.79Shares
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
NoValue$4.5KPnL+$1.6KAvg61.4¢Current93.5¢4,856.66Shares
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
NoValue$4KPnL+$585Avg83.1¢Current97.4¢4,097.56Shares
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YesValue$3.4KPnL−$8.3KAvg43.3¢Current12.6¢26,892.26Shares
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YesValue$2.3KPnL+$677Avg3.5¢Current5.1¢44,801.57Shares
Showing 8 of 166 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet failstober: 26.7% win rate over 60 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −7.1% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −230.7%, n=22 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−8.0% over 21 fills); +$451K lifetime P&L, $39.8M traded, updated 2026-09-24.