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Trader profile

Papuasus

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$12.6KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate26.7%374 settled · past 180 days4 open · 28% underwater · 2 hours ago
Lifetime volume$1.9M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded390Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−29.2% / $95% interval −799.2% to +740.9%14 settled fills · 90d window
Culture
−29.2%n=14 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 24 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 26.7% · Decided 374 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded2 hours ago
Current position value
$992
Snapshot cash PnL
−$50K
Concentration
43.4%
Largest share of value
Positions
183
Showing the largest 8 of 183
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
YesValue$430PnL+$217Avg25.6¢Current51.5¢835.36Shares
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
YesValue$393PnL−$29Avg31.7¢Current29.5¢1,332.83Shares
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
YesValue$163PnL−$24Avg14.3¢Current12.5¢1,300Shares
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
YesValue$6PnL−$33Avg1.9¢Current0.3¢2,044.57Shares
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$8Avg0.6¢Current0¢1,249.57Shares
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$184Avg0.5¢Current0¢36,182.4Shares
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$151Avg1.9¢Current0¢8,056.6Shares
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$226Avg3.1¢Current0¢7,256.74Shares
Showing 8 of 183 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Papuasus: 26.7% win rate over 374 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −29.2% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −799.2%, n=14 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Culture (−29.2% over 14 fills); +$12.6K lifetime P&L, $1.9M traded, updated 2026-09-24.