PolyTrace
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Trader profile

Isengard1

Market makers
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL+$12.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…41 open · 16% underwater · 18 hours ago
Lifetime volume$643.4K1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded345Lifetime coverage
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−8.9% / $95% interval −108.1% to +90.3%10 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−8.9%n=10 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded18 hours ago
Current position value
$8.5K
Snapshot cash PnL
+$582
Concentration
11.2%
Largest share of value
Positions
50
Showing the largest 8 of 50
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$951PnL+$76Avg35¢Current38.1¢2,500Shares
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?
NoValue$927PnL+$199Avg46.7¢Current59.5¢1,558.02Shares
Will Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?
NoValue$840PnL+$163Avg70.9¢Current88¢954.81Shares
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
NoValue$794PnL+$133Avg62.9¢Current75.5¢1,052Shares
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
YesValue$739PnL−$13Avg50.3¢Current49.5¢1,493.85Shares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
NoValue$656PnL+$82Avg58.2¢Current66.5¢985.89Shares
Republican House odds hit 15% by October 31?
NoValue$428PnL+$68Avg70.3¢Current83.5¢512.6Shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
YesValue$386PnL−$64Avg32.1¢Current27.5¢1,405Shares
Showing 8 of 50 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
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Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Isengard1: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −8.9% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −108.1%, n=10 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−8.9% over 10 fills); +$12.4K lifetime P&L, $643.4K traded, updated 2026-09-23.