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Trader profile

DumplingBMF

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$266.6KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate62%618 settled · past 90 days69 open · 77% underwater · 3 hours ago
Lifetime volume$23.7M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded790Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−5.3% / $95% interval −73.9% to +63.4%310 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−5.4%n=254 settled
Politics
−7.5%n=47 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 24 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 62% · Decided 618 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded3 hours ago
Current position value
$82.7K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$262.3K
Concentration
25.6%
Largest share of value
Positions
129
Showing the largest 8 of 129
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$21.2KPnL+$5.8KAvg51.3¢Current70.5¢30,024.64Shares
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$6.8KPnL−$517Avg34.9¢Current32.5¢21,050Shares
Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?
YesValue$6.6KPnL−$10.1KAvg51.5¢Current20.5¢32,432.61Shares
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$5.4KPnL+$180Avg94.6¢Current97.9¢5,500.46Shares
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$3.8KPnL+$107Avg58.8¢Current60.5¢6,221.52Shares
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$3.5KPnL+$130Avg92.3¢Current95.9¢3,681.1Shares
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?
YesValue$3.3KPnL+$208Avg49.2¢Current52.5¢6,232.22Shares
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?
YesValue$2.6KPnL−$2.9KAvg54.5¢Current25.5¢10,061.53Shares
Showing 8 of 129 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet DumplingBMF: 62% win rate over 618 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −5.3% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −73.9%, n=310 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−5.4% over 254 fills); +$266.6K lifetime P&L, $23.7M traded, updated 2026-09-24.