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Trader profile

GuailanKia

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$32KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate47.7%300 settled · past 90 days7 open · 54% underwater · 5 minutes ago
Lifetime volume$1.9M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded1,153Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−32.3% / $95% interval −177.5% to +112.8%15 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−27.5%n=13 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 24 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 47.7% · Decided 300 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Complete5 minutes ago
Current position value
$2K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$156.7K
Concentration
30.7%
Largest share of value
Positions
264
Showing the largest 8 of 264
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
YesValue$603PnL+$270Avg55¢Current99.6¢605Shares
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
YesValue$447PnL+$114Avg74¢Current99.4¢450Shares
Maple Leafs vs. Senators
Maple Leafs · YesValue$421PnL+$243Avg41.6¢Current98.7¢426.72Shares
Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
YesValue$420PnL+$88Avg77.9¢Current98.4¢427Shares
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
YesValue$62PnL−$138Avg36¢Current11.2¢555Shares
Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections?
NoValue$10PnL−$190Avg14.6¢Current0.8¢1,369.77Shares
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?
Over · YesValue$0.59PnL−$499Avg84.9¢Current0.1¢588Shares
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A
PARIVISIONValue$0PnL−$1.2KAvg45.7¢Current0¢2,572Shares
Showing 8 of 264 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet GuailanKia: 47.7% win rate over 300 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −32.3% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −177.5%, n=15 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−27.5% over 13 fills); −$32K lifetime P&L, $1.9M traded, updated 2026-09-24.