PolyTrace
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Trader profile

Siziriv

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$505.5KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate29.6%656 settled · past 90 days210 open · 47% underwater · 4 hours ago
Lifetime volume$113M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded1,773Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−7.1% / $95% interval −164.5% to +150.2%90 settled fills · 90d window
Finance
−4.1%n=36 settled
Sports
−7.0%n=43 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 4 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 29.6% · Decided 656 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Top 5,000
Last loaded4 hours ago

This snapshot reached the 5,000-position product limit. Showing up to 5,000 positions by size.

Current position value
$9.5K
Based on Top 5,000 positions
Snapshot cash PnL
−$3M
Based on Top 5,000 positions
Concentration
15%
Largest share of value
Positions
5,000
Showing the largest 8 of 5,000
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
YesValue$1.4KPnL+$690Avg50¢Current96.5¢1,484.65Shares
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
YesValue$767PnL+$761Avg0.4¢Current51.2¢1,499.57Shares
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YesValue$665PnL+$629Avg3.6¢Current66.5¢1,000Shares
Will Trump deport 400-500k people?
YesValue$657PnL+$603Avg5.6¢Current67¢980.69Shares
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
YesValue$655PnL+$155Avg50¢Current65.5¢999.98Shares
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YesValue$335PnL−$165Avg50¢Current33.5¢1,000Shares
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YesValue$310PnL+$303Avg0.4¢Current20.7¢1,499.74Shares
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YesValue$271PnL+$265Avg0.4¢Current18.3¢1,483.78Shares
Showing 8 of 5,000 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Siziriv: 29.6% win rate over 656 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −7.1% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −164.5%, n=90 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Finance (−4.1% over 36 fills); +$505.5K lifetime P&L, $113M traded, updated 2026-09-24.