PolyTrace
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Trader profile

notailnotail

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$94.2KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate50.3%2,083 settled · past 180 days3 open · 6% underwater · 15 hours ago
Lifetime volume$5M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded1,094Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−43.2% / $95% interval −282.9% to +196.6%52 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−43.2%n=52 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 23 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 50.3% · Decided 2,083 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded15 hours ago
Current position value
$325
Snapshot cash PnL
−$122.7K
Concentration
99.1%
Largest share of value
Positions
54
Showing the largest 8 of 54
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner
MOUZ · NoValue$322PnL+$22Avg28.9¢Current31¢1,038.22Shares
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Conventus Stellarum - Game 1 Winner
Conventus Stellarum · NoValue$0.94PnL+$0.10Avg89.4¢Current100¢0.94Shares
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs 1win (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage
Natus Vincere · YesValue$0.86PnL+$0.05Avg94¢Current100¢0.86Shares
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan before 2027?
YesValue$0.54PnL−$1Avg0.7¢Current0.2¢267.86Shares
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner
LGD Gaming · YesValue$0.51PnL−$0.04Avg74.1¢Current69¢0.74Shares
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner
Aurora · NoValue$0.17PnL$0Avg97.3¢Current100¢0.17Shares
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Conventus Stellarum - Game 1 Winner
Team Nemesis · YesValue$0PnL−$0.25Avg32.4¢Current0¢0.77Shares
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Group Stage
Iron Wing · YesValue$0PnL−$2.4KAvg51¢Current0¢4,692.59Shares
Showing 8 of 54 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet notailnotail: 50.3% win rate over 2,083 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −43.2% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −282.9%, n=52 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−43.2% over 52 fills); −$94.2K lifetime P&L, $5M traded, updated 2026-09-23.