PolyTrace
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Trader profile

0x8c66…44f3

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$58.9KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate49.6%121 settled · past 180 days8 open · 24% underwater · 6 hours ago
Lifetime volume$6M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded119Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−2.8% / $95% interval −131.9% to +126.3%181 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
+0.1%n=161 settled
Finance
−14.1%n=18 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 23 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 49.6% · Decided 121 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded6 hours ago
Current position value
$29K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$70.7K
Concentration
53.1%
Largest share of value
Positions
62
Showing the largest 8 of 62
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Iran leadership change by December 31?
NoValue$15.4KPnL+$270Avg84¢Current85.5¢18,000Shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
NoValue$8KPnL+$2.2KAvg47.7¢Current65.5¢12,222Shares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?
NoValue$3.3KPnL+$53Avg93¢Current94.5¢3,500Shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
NoValue$1.7KPnL+$702Avg51.5¢Current87.5¢1,951.18Shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
NoValue$423PnL+$348Avg14¢Current79.5¢532.03Shares
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
NoValue$68PnL+$43Avg29.6¢Current83¢81.33Shares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
YesValue$62PnL−$962Avg17.4¢Current1.1¢5,884.01Shares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
YesValue$38PnL−$176Avg42.8¢Current7.5¢499.98Shares
Showing 8 of 62 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet 0x8c66e28fbe7ede7f57ba6cbc70408dff442944f3: 49.6% win rate over 121 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −2.8% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −131.9%, n=181 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (+0.1% over 161 fills); +$58.9K lifetime P&L, $6M traded, updated 2026-09-23.