PolyTrace
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Trader profile

0x8b4b…541b

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$195.3KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate83.5%758 settled · past 180 days79 open · 27% underwater · 17 hours ago
Lifetime volume$41.8M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded277Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−5.4% / $95% interval −78.1% to +67.3%598 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
+3.4%n=232 settled
Crypto
−3.7%n=158 settled
Politics
−5.6%n=90 settled
Finance
−23.5%n=111 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 23 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 83.5% · Decided 758 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded17 hours ago
Current position value
$3.9M
Snapshot cash PnL
+$113.2K
Concentration
14.1%
Largest share of value
Positions
79
Showing the largest 8 of 79
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
NoValue$553.1KPnL+$14.3KAvg91.1¢Current93.5¢591,497.73Shares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$287.6KPnL+$24.9KAvg87.5¢Current95.9¢300,000.05Shares
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
NoValue$212.4KPnL+$12.4KAvg91.6¢Current97.4¢218,197.56Shares
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
NoValue$208KPnL+$1.4KAvg95.3¢Current96¢216,775.83Shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
NoValue$200.8KPnL+$2.3KAvg98.8¢Current100¢200,947.84Shares
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$200.6KPnL+$9.2KAvg92.5¢Current97¢206,884.43Shares
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
NoValue$184.7KPnL+$28.1KAvg81.7¢Current96.4¢191,664.57Shares
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
NoValue$182.6KPnL+$3.6KAvg97.7¢Current99.7¢183,238.2Shares
Showing 8 of 79 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet 0x8b4bca1d794779e66e023d44391b2a86c5ab541b: 83.5% win rate over 758 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −5.4% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −78.1%, n=598 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (+3.4% over 232 fills); −$195.3K lifetime P&L, $41.8M traded, updated 2026-09-23.